Consensus processes
Where repeated exposure to the same assumptions makes an alternative interpretation less likely to be considered.
Principles of Engagement
Independent Judgement.
Independent thought is most valuable when consensus is easy.
Perspective
Independent Judgement in practice.
Markets, organisations and transaction processes naturally create consensus. Comparable-company analysis converges, advisers adopt common assumptions and internal teams can become anchored to a preferred outcome. Independence requires the discipline to test those assumptions rather than merely restate them.
Our objective is not contrarianism for its own sake. It is to form a view from the commercial facts, incentives and available evidence, then remain willing to change that view when the facts change.
What matters
Facts before narrative
We separate what is known from what is assumed and identify which assumptions actually drive the decision.
Incentives matter
The advice, behaviour and information provided by participants are influenced by their incentives. Understanding those incentives is part of understanding the situation.
Challenge constructively
Independent judgement should improve a decision, not create friction for display. Challenge is most useful when tied to an alternative or a clearer question.
Revise when required
Conviction and flexibility are not opposites. A strong process allows views to change when new evidence invalidates an earlier assumption.
Context
Independence within a transaction
Independent judgement is particularly important where there is pressure to maintain momentum. Once a process begins, the cost of questioning its direction can appear to rise. In reality, the cost of continuing with a flawed premise may be much greater.
We therefore value explicit decision points, downside cases and the ability to stop, restructure or defer a transaction where the facts no longer support the original objective.
Selected situations
Where independence matters most
Management conviction
Where leadership understandably favours a strategy and the board needs a disciplined challenge to the downside case.
Adviser momentum
Where fees, timetable and process design can create incentives to continue even when the original thesis has weakened.
Market fashion
Where a transaction is justified principally because peers are doing the same thing or because capital is temporarily abundant.
How we think
Independence is a method, not a posture
Independent judgement does not mean automatically taking the opposite view. It means understanding the evidence, the incentives and the assumptions well enough to reach a conclusion without needing consensus as a substitute for analysis.
We value explicit downside cases, competing hypotheses and decision points at which a transaction can be reframed or stopped. This makes conviction more credible because it has survived a serious attempt to disprove the premise.
Independence also requires the willingness to update. A view formed honestly from incomplete information should change when material new evidence arrives. The discipline lies in changing because the facts changed, not because pressure changed.
Questions we ask
Which assumptions are inherited?
We identify claims that have become accepted through repetition rather than evidence.
Who benefits from this conclusion?
Understanding incentives helps distinguish analysis from advocacy.
What evidence would change our view?
A decision process is stronger when the disconfirming evidence is defined in advance.
Are we still solving the original problem?
Processes can drift. We return to the commercial objective to test whether the proposed solution still fits.
Bratton Richards
The purpose of independence is better decisions, not louder opinions.
We engage selectively and only where the circumstances, counterparties and applicable legal and regulatory framework permit. Nothing on this page constitutes an offer, solicitation, investment recommendation or regulated advice.